Weekly GTA Housing Market Brief

The Forecasters Blinked, Builders Are Slowing Down,
and Tomorrow's CPI Could Move the Bank.

Sunday, October 18, 2026  ·  Peter Kiriazopoulos, Kompass Realty Group

Welcome back. Here's the frame I'd use heading into the week: for six weeks the story was higher fixed rates and hesitant buyers. This week the forecasters caught up. CREA cut its national outlook for the third time this year, Royal LePage trimmed its Q4 call, and CMHC reported that actual housing starts in larger urban centres fell again.

There is a clock on all of this. Statistics Canada releases September inflation on Monday morning, and the Bank of Canada decides on October 28. For buyers and sellers in Markham, Stouffville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Newmarket, Scarborough and Toronto, the practical question is simple: does patience pay, and for whom?

This Week at a Glance

1. CREA's Third Forecast Cut: Rate-Hike Worries Have Pushed Sales Down

CREA released its September numbers on Friday: national sales were down 7.7% from a year ago and 2.3% from August. The national average price was $666,538, down 1.6%, and the MLS Home Price Index slipped 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year. New listings eased 1.8% from August, while active listings, just over 200,000, were still up 1.8% year over year.

The more important number is the forecast. CREA now expects 444,530 sales in 2026, down 5.2%, compared with a 1.4% decline projected in July and growth projected at the start of the year. That's three downgrades in a row. It also trimmed its 2026 average price outlook to about $681,681, up just 0.2%. For 2027, CREA expects a recovery of about 4.4% in sales, which tells you the view is delay, not collapse.

CREA's own explanation is worth noting: higher fixed mortgage rates, uncertainty around variable rates and a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada. Their economist added that a Bank of Canada hike before year-end is widely expected, and the open question is how far rates must rise next year. A mortgage broker quoted in the coverage described the market as a standoff over which side gives in first, with many sellers likely to wait until early next year. TD's economist sees borrowing costs as the main driver, and expects loose supply and demand to weigh on Ontario and B.C. prices in 2027.

2. Royal LePage Q3: The GTA Is Softer Than the Country, and the Q4 Call Is Still Negative

Royal LePage's Q3 House Price Survey, released Thursday, puts the GTA aggregate price at $1,073,100, down 3.7% from a year ago and 2.6% from Q2. The detached median was $1,364,400 (−2.8%) and the condo median $641,500 (−4.1%). Nationally the aggregate was $810,000, down 0.8%, so the GTA continues to lag. Royal LePage expects the GTA aggregate to be down about 2% year over year in Q4, and trimmed its national call to a 1.0% gain from 2.0%.

Royal LePage's reading of the mood is useful for anyone with a home in York Region. Phil Soper's view is that buyers are hesitating more because they are unsure about the future than because they can't afford homes today. That gives buyers negotiating room, though they don't control what drives their confidence. He frames this as a detour rather than a derailment, and expects the Bank of Canada to hold through 2026 and hike in early 2027. The survey ties the slowdown to the U.S. tariffs imposed after trade talks collapsed in August, and to the prospect of higher borrowing costs.

A note on reading these reports: the figures don't match, and they aren't supposed to. TRREB reported a September average price down 5.1%, Royal LePage reports an aggregate price survey for the quarter, and CREA tracks national averages and a benchmark index. The measures differ in method and timing, but the direction is consistent, and the GTA is weaker than the national picture. Don't compare one headline number to another. Compare the trend.

3. CMHC: Starts Ticked Up in September, but Urban Construction Is Still Slowing

CMHC reported that the seasonally adjusted annual pace of housing starts was 248,896 units in September, up from 242,223 in August, and the six-month trend edged up 0.6% to 250,411. That sounds encouraging until you read the underlying count. Actual starts in centres of 10,000 people or more were 19,984, down 11% from 22,375 a year ago, and year-to-date starts of 170,964 are down 4%. Of the four most populous provinces, only Quebec is showing modest gains for 2026.

Why does a Stouffville or Markham buyer care about national construction data? Because it shapes what the market looks like when confidence returns. Fewer starts today mean fewer completions in two to three years, and CMHC continues to describe a long-term supply gap. The near-term market is soft, but the structural story, especially for freehold homes in York Region where land is limited, has not gone away. Buyers waiting for a deeper discount should weigh that against the risk that the window narrows once rates and confidence stabilize.

4. Monday's CPI and the October 28 Decision: What to Watch Before You Lock a Rate

Statistics Canada releases September CPI on Monday, October 19, at 8:30 a.m.. Headline inflation was 3.0% in August for the second month in a row, with core measures near 2%. The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for a year, and its next decisions are October 28 and December 9. Views are split: Royal LePage's Soper expects holds through 2026 and a hike in early 2027, a banking executive quoted in the survey coverage expects an October increase, and CREA says a hike before year-end is widely expected. I'm not going to pretend to know which it is. After the weak September jobs report I covered last week, odds of an October move had fallen, and Monday's inflation number is the next thing that can change them.

On mortgages, I don't have a clean new quote this week, so treat these as early-October levels: best insured five-year fixed rates were around 4.24% to 4.34%, with the best variable around 3.25% to 3.40% and prime at 4.45%. Fixed rates follow the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which hit about 3.73% in late September and eased to roughly 3.56% by October 9. Royal LePage's renewal survey found 38% of mortgage holders expect higher payments at renewal. If you renew in the next six months, shop early, get a written rate hold, and compare your bank's offer with a broker's.

Peter's Take

Here's how I'm reading it. Three different organizations looked at the same market this week and reached a similar conclusion: buyers are waiting, sellers are waiting, and the forecasters are moving their timelines out. A slower market isn't a broken market. It's a market where preparation counts for more than speed.

If you're buying: you have more room to negotiate, particularly on condos and on homes that have sat on the market. Get pre-approved with a written rate hold, keep your conditions, and run your numbers at a rate a quarter point higher than today's.

If you're selling: price to recent sales, not to the spring. Many owners are choosing to wait until early next year, which can mean fewer competing listings later, but it also means carrying costs in the meantime. If you need to sell this fall, presentation and pricing matter more than ever.

If you're investing: underwrite on higher rates and assume longer vacancy. A lower entry price helps, but the benefit disappears if the rent doesn't cover a more expensive mortgage.

What to watch next: September CPI on Monday, October 19; the Toronto municipal election on October 26; the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision and new forecast; and TRREB's October data in early November. If you'd like to talk through your street, price range or renewal date, reach out. That conversation is always more useful than the general one.

^Sources

^{•  CREA - September 2026 national sales statistics and forecast update (October 16, 2026), via The Canadian Press: cp24.com/news/canada/2026/10/16/crea-downgrades-home-sales-forecast-for-the-third-time-this-year}

^{•  BNN Bloomberg - "CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year," October 16, 2026: bnnbloomberg.ca/business/real-estate/2026/10/16/crea-downgrades-home-sales-forecast-for-the-third-time-this-year/}

^{•  Royal LePage - Q3 2026 House Price Survey (October 15, 2026), via MPA: mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/royal-lepage-trade-tensions-stall-canadas-fall-housing-market/593699}

^{•  BlogTO - Toronto home prices, Royal LePage Q3 2026 (October 2026): blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2026/10/toronto-home-prices-hit-year/}

^{•  CMHC - Housing Starts, September 2026 (October 16, 2026): cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-construction-data-september-2026}

^{•  CP24 / The Canadian Press - "CMHC reports annual pace of housing starts in September up from August," October 16, 2026: cp24.com/news/canada/2026/10/16/cmhc-reports-annual-pace-of-housing-starts-in-september-up-from-august/}

^{•  TRREB - Market Watch, September 2026 (October 6, 2026): trreb.ca (average price -5.1% YoY, as covered in last week's brief)}

^{•  Statistics Canada - CPI release schedule (September CPI due October 19, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET); August CPI 3.0% per MPA coverage}

^{•  Mortgage and bond-yield levels as of early October 2026 (ratehub.ca, nesto.ca, immigrationnewscanada.ca); figures approximate and sources differ}

^{•  Toronto municipal election date (October 26, 2026): NOW Toronto / Storeys coverage}

Peter Kiriazopoulos, Sales Representative  ·  Kompass Realty Group  ·  RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage  ·  1739 Bayview Avenue, Toronto

This brief is provided for general information only and is not intended as financial, mortgage, legal or tax advice. Market data is sourced as cited above and is subject to revision. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.