GTA Sales Are Up — But 75% of Homes Are Still Selling Under Asking.
 What TRREB's March Data (and Carney's Win) Mean for You Right Now

Peter Kiriazopoulos, REALTOR®  |   Kompass Realty Group  |  April 12, 2026

If you've been waiting for a sign that the GTA market is starting to find its footing, this past week delivered one. TRREB's March 2026 data — released April 7th — showed 5,039 homes sold last month, marking the first year-over-year sales increase since September 2025. Buyers are slowly trickling back. But here's the thing: prices are still down 7.4% from a year ago, and nearly three-quarters of GTA neighbourhoods saw homes sell below asking. This market is healing, not healed.

Add to that a federal election result that's reshaping housing policy expectations, fixed mortgage rates that quietly crept up this week, a condo market that's still searching for a floor, and a tariff-driven supply crunch that nobody's talking about enough — and you've got a lot to unpack. Let's get into it.

1. The TRREB March Numbers Are In — And They're Telling Two Stories at Once

The headline is encouraging: 5,039 GTA home sales in March, up 0.6% year-over-year and up a whopping 30.3% from February. That seasonal bounce is partly normal spring momentum — but there's also a genuine affordability story here. With benchmark prices sitting at $941,800 (their lowest level since late 2020) and mortgage rates off their 2023 peak, some buyers who had been priced out are stepping back in.

But the second story is the reality on the ground: 75% of GTA neighbourhoods saw homes sell below asking last month. Months of supply ticked down to 4.3 (from 5.0 in February), which is an improvement — but still firmly in balanced-to-buyer's market territory. Sellers don't have pricing power yet. If you're listing right now, your pricing strategy needs to be sharp, or you'll sit.

Source: TRREB Market Watch, April 7, 2026

Local callout: In Markham, the average home is trading around $1,167,152 with 713 new listings in the last 28 days and a median days-on-market of 26. In York Region overall, freehold prices are down 8.6% year-over-year with inventory sitting at just under 6 months. Stouffville continues to hold its own in the freehold segment — well-priced detached homes are still moving, but overpriced product is sitting.

2. Ontario Just Cut Development Charges in Half — Here's What That Actually Does to Home Prices

On March 30th, the federal and Ontario governments announced an $8.8 billion joint investment to slash municipal development charges by up to 50% for three years. This is a big deal — and it's already in effect. Development charges are the fees municipalities collect from builders to fund infrastructure like roads, sewers, and parks. In York Region, those fees can add $80,000 to $130,000 to the cost of a single new home. Cut that in half, and the math on a stalled project suddenly starts working again.

Here's how the program works: municipalities that voluntarily agree to cut their DCs by up to 50% receive provincial and federal infrastructure funding to offset the lost revenue. Municipalities that have already reduced charges get prioritized. It's a carrot — not a stick — but it's a large enough carrot that most 905 municipalities are expected to opt in. Markham, Richmond Hill, and Vaughan are the ones to watch — they carry some of the highest DCs in the province.

The practical impact for buyers? Don't expect prices to drop overnight — builders pocket some margin recovery first, and the effect flows through on new completions 18–36 months out. But for pre-construction buyers signing agreements between now and March 31, 2027, the combination of no HST (up to $130,000 in savings) and lower DCs baked into builder pricing represents the most significant affordability improvement for new builds we've seen in years. If you've been sitting on the fence about a new build in Stouffville, Markham, or the broader York Region — this is the window.

3. Fixed Rates Quietly Crept Up This Week — Here's What to Watch Before April 29

Here's one that caught some buyers off guard this week: fixed mortgage rates have climbed roughly 40 basis points over the past few weeks. The best insured 5-year fixed rate is now around 3.94%, up from 3.79% in early March. Variable rates are holding steady with prime at 4.45% — the Bank of Canada has been parked at 2.25% since last fall, and markets are pricing in near-certainty (96.5% on Polymarket as of this week) that April 29 will be another hold.

Why are fixed rates rising if the BoC isn't moving? It's the bond market. Government of Canada bond yields have been drifting higher on two concerns: the ongoing war in Iran (oil price shock → inflation risk) and tariff uncertainty heading into the July CUSMA review. Fixed mortgage rates track 5-year GoC bonds — not the BoC overnight rate — so you can have a BoC hold and still see fixed rates tick up.

The April 29 Monetary Policy Report is the one to circle. It will be the BoC's first major communication since the election and since the Iran ceasefire news started circulating. If the Bank signals confidence on inflation, bond yields could ease and fixed rates could pull back. If you're pre-approved at today's rates and your deal closes within 90–120 days, you may want to lock sooner rather than later.

Sources: WOWA.ca, Ratehub.ca, Globe and Mail, April 12, 2026

4. The Condo Market Reset Is Real — And a New Wave of Buyers Is Starting to Circle

Toronto condo apartments averaged $620,479 in March — down 9.0% year-over-year and barely above where they were in 2020. From the February 2022 peak, GTA condo prices are down 29.6% region-wide. That is a significant correction by any measure, driven by a trio of forces: the mass exodus of speculative investors who can't cashflow at current rents, an unprecedented completion wave (roughly 28,000 units expected in the GTA in 2026), and a new construction sector that effectively shut off pre-sales in 2023–2024.

The interesting development this week is that strategic capital — institutional buyers, value-focused long-term investors, and first-time buyers who couldn't afford anything a year ago — is starting to circle. Not in a frenzied way; more like smart money testing the waters. If you're a first-time buyer who's been watching from the sidelines, a sub-$600K condo in a well-located Markham or North York building looks very different today than it did in 2022.

One caveat: the condo market is not monolithic. Buildings with high investor concentration, deferred maintenance, or weak rental demand are still under pressure. Status certificate review before any offer is non-negotiable right now. Ask questions about special assessments and reserve fund health — some buildings coming out of the completion wave are not in great shape.

5. Tariffs Are Quietly Making the Supply Problem Worse — And Nobody's Talking About It Enough

While everyone focuses on demand-side housing policy — tax breaks, rate cuts, first-time buyer incentives — the supply side is getting quietly hammered. US tariffs on steel and aluminum are adding an estimated 4% to total residential development costs in Canada. The Canadian Home Builders' Association has flagged this as a serious risk, and ConstructConnect is forecasting a 5% decline in residential housing starts across Canada in 2026 as a direct result of rising construction costs and financing uncertainty.

Here's the irony: the government is promising 500,000 homes a year while tariffs and supply chain disruption are pushing in the exact opposite direction. Every new home in Canada now costs more to build — steel, aluminum, lumber, appliances, tiles — because of the trade war. And the Bank of Canada listed the CUSMA review (set for July 1, 2026) alongside the Iran situation as two of its top three live macro risks. A bad CUSMA outcome in July could put further upward pressure on construction costs and bond yields simultaneously.

For anyone who's been waiting for a new-build wave to cool the resale market: don't hold your breath in the near term. The supply response everyone is counting on is running into a construction cost headwind that policy announcements alone can't fix. The development charge cuts help at the margins, but the tariff issue is a real drag on starts.

The Bottom Line

For Buyers: The market still tilts in your favour in most GTA segments. Benchmark prices are at five-year lows, 75% of homes are selling below asking, and the HST break on new builds is live. Lock in your pre-approval before April 29 if you can — and watch the BoC's MPR carefully. If you're a first-timer looking at condos, this window of pricing may not last forever.

For Sellers: Sales are coming back, but pricing discipline matters more than ever. Overpriced listings are sitting. Well-priced detached homes in the GT are still moving — but you need to be at market value, not 2022 value. The spring window is open. Price it right and go now.

For Investors: The condo correction is real and deep — 30% off peak in the GTA is hard to ignore for long-term value plays. But do your homework on the specific building: reserve funds, management quality, and rental demand in the immediate area matter enormously right now. The tariff story adds a longer-term tailwind to resale values as new supply gets squeezed — but be patient.

About Peter Kiriazopoulos

Peter Kiriazopoulos is a REALTOR with Kompass Realty Group, specializing in residential real estate across Stouffville, Markham, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and the broader York Region and GTA. With deep local market knowledge and a data-driven approach, Peter helps buyers, sellers, and investors navigate one of Canada's most complex real estate markets. Questions about the market? Reach out directly — Peter reads every message.

Sources

• TRREB Market Watch — GTA Homes Sales Up and Selling Prices Down in March, April 7, 2026: https://trreb.ca/gta-homes-sales-up-and-selling-prices-down-in-march/
• BNN Bloomberg — Market Outlook: Toronto home sales post first annual gain in six months, April 7, 2026: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/market-outlook/2026/04/07/market-outlook-toronto-home-sales-post-first-annual-gain-in-six-months/
• CBC News — GTA home sales up year-over-year for 1st time in 6 months, April 7, 2026: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greater-toronto-home-sales-up-9.7154454
• CP24 — Nearly 75% of GTA neighbourhoods saw homes sell below asking in March, April 6, 2026: https://www.cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/04/06/nearly-75-per-cent-of-gta-neighbourhoods-saw-homes-sell-below-asking-in-march-report-finds/
• CBC News — Ford, Carney announce $8.8B to help cut development charges, spur housing builds in Ontario, March 30, 2026: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/carney-ford-chow-news-conference-9.7146922
• BNN Bloomberg — Development charges to be cut in half for three years through $8.8 billion investment, March 30, 2026: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/30/development-charges-to-be-cut-in-half-for-three-years-through-88-billion-investment-by-ontario-and-federal-governments/
• GlobeNewswire — Ontario home building industry hails historic announcement on development charges, March 30, 2026: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/30/3264854/0/en/Ontario-home-building-and-development-industry-hails-historic-federal-and-provincial-announcement-on-development-charges.html
• Globe and Mail — The week's best fixed and variable mortgage rates, April 9, 2026: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-best-mortgage-rates-canada-fixed-variable-april-9/
• Bank of Canada — Policy rate at 2.25%, March 18, 2026: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18/
• Newswire — Toronto's Condo Market Reset: How Strategic Developers Are Turning 2026's Correction Into Opportunity: https://www.newswire.com/news/torontos-condo-market-reset-how-strategic-developers-are-turning-2026s
• Canadian Home Builders' Association — Impacts of Trump Tariffs on Canadian Residential Construction Sector: https://www.chba.ca/impacts-of-trump-tariffs-on-canadian-residential-sector/
• Maclean's — Metal Tariffs Will Turbocharge Canada's Housing Crisis: https://macleans.ca/economy/canada-housing-us-tariffs/
• WOWA.ca — Toronto Housing Market: Apr. 7th, 2026 Update: https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market
• Zolo.ca — Markham Housing Market Report, April 2026: https://www.zolo.ca/markham-real-estate/trends