KOMPASS REALTY GROUP

Weekly GTA Housing Market Brief

Listings Are Tightening, Jobs Roared Back, and
the Condo Market Didn't Get the Memo.

Sunday, June 7, 2026  ·  Peter Kiriazopoulos, Kompass Realty Group

Welcome back. Two numbers defined the week, and they pull in the same direction. On Wednesday, TRREB's May report showed home sales up 6.3% while new listings fell almost 19% — the clearest sign yet that the GTA market is quietly tightening. Then on Friday, Statistics Canada reported the economy added 88,000 jobs, the biggest gain in six months, all but ending the recession chatter that dominated headlines two weeks ago.

Here's the frame I'd use for the week. Demand is firming, supply is starting to pull back, and the labour market just flexed — and yet prices are still down year-over-year and the condo market is sliding in the other direction entirely. That split screen is the whole story right now. The freehold market across Markham, Richmond Hill, Stouffville and Newmarket is firming up; the downtown Toronto and Scarborough condo segment is still searching for a bottom. Let's walk through what's real, what's noise, and what it means for you heading into the June 10 Bank of Canada decision.

1. The May Squeeze: Sales Up, Listings Down, Market Tightening

This is the headline that actually matters for your home's value. In May, GTA REALTORS® reported 6,583 sales — up 6.3% from a year ago — while new listings fell to 17,698, down 18.9%. Active inventory eased too, to 26,927 listings, off 13.3% year-over-year — still a healthy pool of homes by recent standards, but clearly starting to draw down. When demand rises and supply begins to pull back at the same time, you get a tightening market — and that's the direction the data has pointed for three months running.

The average selling price came in at $1,069,700. That's still down 4.6% from May 2025 and the MLS Home Price Index benchmark is off 6.7% year-over-year — so we're not back to rising prices yet. But look at the trajectory within 2026: the average has climbed steadily from $968,562 in January to $1,069,700 in May, and on a seasonally-adjusted basis prices ticked up again month-over-month. The sale-to-list ratio sat at 98% — buyers still have a sliver of negotiating room, but it's narrowing.

My read, which lines up with what Daniel Foch flagged in his column this week: the market is tightening, but pricing power hasn't fully shifted back to sellers yet. New supply is pulling back a little faster than demand is building, and that's how a price floor begins to form — quietly, before the headlines catch up. To be clear, this is a process, not a switch: there's still a sizable backlog of inventory on the market, so we're in the early innings of a tightening, not a shortage. But if you've been waiting for the "all-clear" to buy, understand that the conditions that created this year's buyer's window — abundant listings and motivated sellers — are the very things that are slowly starting to fade.

2. The Jobs Blowout That Silenced the Recession Talk

Two Sundays ago the big story was a technical recession. This Friday, the labour market answered. Canada added 88,000 jobs in May — the largest monthly gain since November 2025 — and the unemployment rate fell three-tenths to 6.6%. Even better under the hood: full-time work jumped 154,000, more than reversing the slow bleed from January through April, and construction led the gains at +27,000. As BMO's chief economist put it, the report "should silence the recession crowd."

Why does this matter for housing? Because employment and confidence are the fuel behind home purchases. A softening labour market keeps would-be buyers on the sidelines; a strengthening one brings them back. Construction adding jobs is doubly encouraging — that's the supply side of the housing equation showing a pulse after a brutal stretch.

It also reframes the Bank of Canada decision this Wednesday, June 10. Every one of the 34 economists in the latest Reuters poll expects the Bank to hold at 2.25% — which would be the fifth straight hold — and a strong jobs print removes any urgency to cut right now. Inflation, running near 2.8% on higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, argues the same way. The takeaway for your mortgage: rates are stable, the economy isn't falling apart, and the surprise risk has shifted away from "emergency cuts" toward "steady as she goes."

3. The Condo Market Didn't Get the Memo

Here's the other side of the split screen. While freehold homes tightened, the condo segment kept sliding. The average GTA condo sold for $639,468 in May, down 6.4% year-over-year. The pain is worse in the 905, where condo prices fell 9.5% to $573,531, versus a more contained 5.0% drop in the City of Toronto's 416, where the average held at $673,841.

The problem isn't resale demand so much as the wall of new supply behind it. As Steve Saretsky has been hammering, there's a "shadow inventory" the monthly board stats don't capture: a record 4,295 newly completed condos sat unsold as of Q1 — roughly double a year ago and nearly five times the level of two years ago. That's about 92 months of standing new-condo supply at the current sales pace. Developers have already cut new prices about 5% year-over-year to an average of $1,189 per square foot, and Saretsky expects housing starts to keep falling because builders can't move what they've already built.

What it means: the condo correction and the freehold recovery are two different markets moving on two different clocks. For buyers, that's opportunity — entry-level pricing in downtown Toronto and Scarborough condos hasn't been this negotiable in years. For sellers and investors, it's a reality check: a condo today has to compete with deeply discounted brand-new inventory, so pricing to the market on day one matters more than ever.

4. Rates Hold Firm — and the York Region Read

With the Bank widely expected to stand pat Wednesday, here's the rate menu on the ground: best 5-year fixed around 3.99%, best 5-year variable around 3.35%, and prime at 4.45%. Note the gap between the brokers/online lenders and the Big Six, who are averaging closer to 4.93% on the same 5-year fixed term — that spread is real money, and it's why shopping your rate (or your renewal) is worth the afternoon it takes. Fixed rates remain stuck near 4% because government bond yields jumped on the oil-price spike, not because of anything the Bank of Canada is doing.

Closer to home, the tightening freehold story is playing out right across York Region. Lower prices through the winter have pulled buyers back into Richmond Hill, Aurora, Markham and Stouffville who'd been priced out a year ago — and with new listings down sharply, that returning demand is meeting a supply that's beginning to draw down. Markham townhouses are averaging around $1.07M, Newmarket's median sits near $940,000, and detached homes in Whitchurch-Stouffville remain among the most premium in the region. The buyer's window is still open across the 905 — there's plenty of choice on the market and financing and inspection conditions are back in play — but it is gradually narrowing as inventory draws down.

Peter's Take

If you're buying

The window is still open — but it's gradually starting to close. The exact conditions that made this a buyer's market — lots of listings, patient sellers, conditions back in your favour — are slowly beginning to ease off, especially for freehold homes in Markham, Richmond Hill, Stouffville and Newmarket. There's still real choice out there, so no need to panic-buy — but if you've been waiting for prices to fall further on detached, the supply math is starting to work against that bet. On the flip side, condos in downtown Toronto and Scarborough are the genuine value play right now — there's real negotiating room against discounted new inventory. Get pre-approved on both fixed and variable, lean on comps from the last 30 days, and move decisively when the right home shows up.

If you're selling

Easing competition on the listing side is starting to work in your favour — but only if you're in the freehold lane. A well-prepared detached or townhome in York Region is meeting a market that's tightening, with somewhat fewer rivals than earlier this spring. Price it to meet the market on day one and you can ride the momentum. If you're selling a condo, the playbook is different: you're competing with brand-new units selling below cost, so sharp pricing and standout presentation aren't optional. In both cases, time on market is still the enemy.

If you're investing

The two-tier market is your map. Freehold across the 905 is the sturdier long-hold thesis — land, scarcity and end-user demand, with supply now beginning to tighten. Pre-construction condos remain broken on cash flow and appraisal risk. But resale condos in the 416 and Scarborough at today's reset prices can finally pencil for a long-hold landlord with a real down payment — cap rates, not capital gains. Pick your lane deliberately and run the actual numbers before you commit.

The bottom line this week: the recession scare faded, jobs came roaring back, and the GTA's freehold market is quietly tightening even as the condo segment keeps correcting. That's not a market in trouble — that's a market sorting itself out, with opportunity sitting on both sides of the split. The buyers and sellers who win the back half of 2026 will be the ones who understand which of the two markets they're actually in.

— Peter

Sources

•  TRREB — “Spring Home Sales Stronger Than Last Year” (Market Watch, May 2026), June 3, 2026 — https://trreb.ca/spring-home-sales-stronger-than-last-year/

•  GlobeNewswire — “TRREB: Spring Home Sales Stronger Than Last Year”, June 3, 2026 — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/03/3305823/0/en/TRREB-Spring-Home-Sales-Stronger-Than-Last-Year.html

•  Zoocasa — “TRREB May Report 2026: Sales Increase as Spring Peaks” — https://www.zoocasa.com/blog/trreb-may-2026/

•  Real Estate Magazine — Daniel Foch: “The GTA market is tightening — prices are still looking for a floor” — https://realestatemagazine.ca/foch-the-gta-market-is-tightening-prices-are-still-looking-for-a-floor/

•  Statistics Canada — “Labour Force Survey, May 2026”, June 5, 2026 — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260605/dq260605a-eng.htm

•  CBC News — “Canadian economy adds 88,000 jobs in May”, June 5, 2026 — https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-may-2026-9.7224553

•  Yahoo Finance — “Solid May jobs report ‘should silence the recession crowd’: BMO economist”, June 5, 2026 — https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/statistics-canada-set-release-jobs-080004987.html

•  Prism News — “Economists expect Bank of Canada to hold rates through 2026”, June 2026 — https://www.prismnews.com/news/economists-expect-bank-of-canada-to-hold-rates-through-2026

•  Bank of Canada — Policy interest rate (held at 2.25%) — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/

•  Canadian Mortgage Professional — “Prices slump again in Toronto condo market even as sales rise” — https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/prices-slump-again-in-toronto-condo-market-even-as-sales-rise/577639

•  Real Estate Magazine — “Realtors warn of ‘shadow’ condo inventory building in major cities” — https://realestatemagazine.ca/realtors-warn-of-shadow-condo-inventory-building-in-major-cities/

•  Ratehub — Best 5-year fixed & variable mortgage rates, June 2026 — https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates

•  WOWA — Toronto & Bank of Canada interest rate, June 2026 — https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market

•  Zolo — Markham & Newmarket market reports, May 2026 — https://www.zolo.ca/markham-real-estate/trends

•  RE/MAX — York Region Housing Market Outlook 2026 — https://blog.remax.ca/york-region-housing-market-outlook/

Peter Kiriazopoulos*, Sales Representative   ·   Kompass Realty Group

RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage — Independently Owned and Operated

1739 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, ON   ·   416-721-2298   ·   [email protected]   ·   kompassrealtygroup.ca

*Personal Real Estate Corporation. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract. This brief is general market commentary, not financial advice.