Ontario’s $130K Tax Break Is Live

Here’s What It Actually Means for GTA Buyers and Sellers

By Peter Kiriazopoulos  |  Kompass Realty Group  |   April 5, 2026

If you’ve been waiting for a reason to restart that home search — or wondering if the spring market is ever going to wake up — this was an eventful week to pay attention.

On March 30, Premier Ford and Prime Minister Carney stood side by side and announced the full removal of the 13% HST on new homes up to $1 million, effective April 1. That’s up to $130,000 back in a buyer’s pocket on a qualifying new build — and it’s live right now. Meanwhile, the broader GTA market is still sorting itself out: fixed mortgage rates are quietly climbing even as the Bank of Canada holds, pre-construction condo buyers are facing some painful realities as their completions arrive, and spring listings are building slowly across Toronto, Markham, and York Region without a matching surge of buyers to meet them.

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1. The HST Is Gone on New Builds — And the Numbers Are Hard to Ignore

As of April 1, 2026, anyone purchasing a newly constructed home in Ontario priced at $1 million or under pays zero HST — that’s the full 13% wiped out (5% federal, 8% provincial) for one year, through March 31, 2027. On a $1M home, that’s $130,000 in savings. On a $900,000 townhome — the kind of thing you’re still finding in parts of Markham, Stouffville, and northern York Region — you’re looking at $117,000 back in your pocket. There’s also a partial rebate on homes up to $1.85 million.

What does this mean on the ground in York Region and the GTA? If you’ve been comparing a resale home to a new build and the numbers never quite worked before, run them again now. Pre-construction townhomes and detached homes in Stouffville, Markham, and Richmond Hill are largely under $1M — this deal was built for exactly those projects. The window is one year. After March 31, 2027, the full HST comes back unless the program is extended.

One caveat worth flagging: the rebate applies to new purchase agreements signed while the program is active. If you bought pre-construction three years ago and are closing in 2026, the rules are still being clarified — check with your real estate lawyer before assuming you qualify. And watch whether builders actually pass the savings through or quietly hold onto the margin improvement.

Sources: CBC News — Ford/Carney $8.8B Housing Deal | CP24 — Say Bye to the HST | Globe and Mail — HST Rebate | iSure — Who Qualifies

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2. Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Climbing — Even With the BoC Standing Pat

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18 — the third consecutive pause — and markets are pricing roughly an 89% chance of another hold at the April 29 decision. Variable rate holders are fine for now. But fixed mortgage rates are moving independently, and they’ve been quietly edging higher through April.

Why? Bond yields. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield has been creeping above 3%, pushed up by trade war uncertainty, rising energy prices, and a global risk-off sentiment. When bond yields go up, fixed mortgage rates follow — regardless of what the BoC does. As of early April, the best available 5-year fixed rates from brokers are running roughly 3.84% to 4.04%, up from lows seen in late 2025.

For buyers in the GTA right now, this matters. If you’ve been saying “I’ll wait for rates to come down” — that strategy has pretty much run its course. The cuts that were going to happen largely happened last year.

The even bigger story on the mortgage front is the renewal wave. Over one million Canadian households are renewing their mortgages in 2026, many coming off sub-2% pandemic-era rates. In York Region and across the 905, that’s a lot of families absorbing real payment increases — often $500 to $700 a month more. If you’re renewing in the next 90 to 120 days, a conversation with your mortgage broker right now is worth having.

Sources: Bank of Canada — March 18, 2026 | WOWA — Rate Tracker | True North Mortgage | nesto — Rate Forecast

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3. Pre-Construction Condo Buyers: The Reckoning Is Arriving

This week, BNN Bloomberg and CTV ran a segment that put a national spotlight on something a lot of GTA buyers have been dealing with quietly: pre-construction condo buyers facing limited options and steep losses as their completions arrive in 2026.

Buyers who signed agreements in 2021 or 2022 at peak pricing are being handed keys to units worth significantly less than what they contracted to pay. Roughly 28,000 pre-construction units are expected to complete across the GTA in 2026. For buyers whose units are completing now, the choices are painful: close and absorb the loss, try to assign (often blocked by developer contracts), or walk away and lose the deposit.

New condo sales across all of 2025 totalled just 1,599 units — a 60% drop from the year before and the lowest figure since 1991. That collapse in new sales has been matched by a surge in completed but unsold inventory, which was up 131% year-over-year.

The long-term piece worth holding onto: today’s collapse in new construction is setting the stage for a genuine supply shortage by 2028 or 2029. Condo starts dropped roughly 63% last year. The oversupply problem in 2026 quietly becomes an undersupply problem by the end of the decade — and that will show up in prices across the entire GTA, including Markham, Richmond Hill, and Stouffville.

If you’re holding a pre-construction agreement closing this year, get independent legal advice before you do anything. There are real options — but you need someone in your corner.

Sources: BNN Bloomberg — Pre-Built Condo Buyers (April 4, 2026) | CBC News — Pre-Con Losses

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4. What’s Actually Happening in Markham, York Region, and Toronto Right Now

SNLR = Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio. Balanced market: 40–60%. Below 40% = buyer’s market. Source: TRREB Feb 2026, Zolo, Wahi.

In Markham, the market is in buyer’s territory but not uniformly so. The overall sales-to-new-listings ratio sits around 41%. Average home prices are running around $1.09 million. There are pockets that are genuinely competitive — Angus Glen, Berczy Village, and Commerce Valley have all shown tighter conditions — but the broader market gives buyers real room to negotiate, especially in condo apartments where median prices are around $555,000.

In Stouffville and Whitchurch-Stouffville, detached homes are selling at about 96% of list — buyers are typically getting 3% to 4% off asking. That’s real money on a $1.2M home. Townhomes are the exception: limited supply means they’re still seeing competitive offers.

In Toronto, RBC Economics put out an updated report this week: “Canada’s Housing Markets Crack Under Weight of Trade War.” The Toronto composite MLS HPI has now fallen in five of the last six months, down about 4.4% since December to approximately $1.07 million. Condo apartments are taking the hardest hit — sales down over 30% year-over-year. If you’re selling a Toronto condo right now, realistic pricing from day one isn’t optional — it’s survival.

The February TRREB data showed 3,868 GTA transactions — down 6.3% year-over-year — average selling price $1,008,968 and benchmark $938,800. Watch for the March 2026 TRREB release this coming week.

Sources: RBC Economics — Trade War Impact | Zolo — Markham | Wahi — Markham | TRREB Market Watch | Globe and Mail — Spring Market

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5. Development Charges Are Getting Slashed — And That Could Change What Gets Built

Alongside the HST removal, a second piece of the Ford-Carney housing deal deserves its own spotlight: an $8.8 billion federal-provincial cost-sharing agreement over ten years to cut municipal development charges across Ontario by up to 50%. This is not a small-print footnote — it’s a structural change that could meaningfully shift the economics of new home construction across the GTA.

Development charges — the fees municipalities levy on builders to pay for roads, sewers, transit, parks, and other infrastructure tied to new growth — have been one of the fastest-growing cost items in new home construction. In parts of York Region and the outer 905, development charges now routinely run $80,000 to $100,000 per unit. On a $900,000 townhome, that’s roughly 10% of the purchase price that goes straight to the municipality before a single wall goes up.

The new deal covers municipalities representing approximately 80% of Ontario’s population. Savings are cost-shared between Ottawa and Queen’s Park, and the province is projecting roughly 8,000 additional housing starts per year as a result, along with 21,000 new jobs and $2.7 billion added to Ontario’s GDP.

For buyers in Markham, Stouffville, and Richmond Hill, this matters in a very tangible way. Stack the development charge savings ($40,000–$50,000) on top of the HST elimination ($78,000–$130,000), and the total cost reduction on a qualifying new build could reach $150,000 to $200,000. That is a game-changer for first-time buyers and move-up families who have been priced out of new construction over the past several years.

The critical question is execution. Municipalities set their own DC bylaws, and the deal requires them to pass the savings through. Not every municipality will move at the same pace. Whitchurch-Stouffville, Markham, and other York Region municipalities will each need to update their DC schedules — and the timeline for that isn’t fully clear. Mike Moffat’s caveat applies: “This is only a temporary measure. We need more structural changes.”

Still, the signal from both levels of government is unmistakable: housing supply is a top priority, and they’re willing to put real dollars behind making new construction more affordable. For anyone considering a new build in the GTA over the next 12 months, these combined incentives create the strongest buying conditions for new homes in years.

Sources: PM of Canada — Ford-Carney Housing Partnership | CBC News — $8.8B Housing Deal | Osler — Nation-Building: The Carney-Ford Deal | BNN Bloomberg — Middle Class Housing Expert

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Key Takeaways This Week

▸ The HST elimination (April 1 – March 31, 2027) is real money — $78K–$130K in savings on new builds. If you’ve been sitting on a new-construction purchase in York Region, this window changes the math. Run your numbers again.

▸ Development charges are being cut by up to 50% — that’s another $40K–$50K off the cost of a new home. Combined with the HST removal, total savings could hit $200K. Watch whether your municipality passes the savings through.

▸ Fixed rates are rising independently of the BoC — bond yields are driving 5-year fixed rates toward 4%+. The “wait for rate cuts” play has run its course.

▸ Pre-construction condo buyers are facing a reckoning — 28,000 units completing in 2026, many below purchase price. Get legal advice now if you’re closing this year.

▸ Markham and Stouffville are firmly in buyer’s market territory — but competitive pockets remain (townhomes, bungalows, Angus Glen). Well-priced listings still move.

▸ Today’s condo oversupply is planting the seeds of tomorrow’s shortage — starts down 63%, completions collapsing. Buyers in 2028–2029 will wish they had today’s selection.

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This roundup was compiled from publicly available sources published March 29 – April 5, 2026. All citations are linked above. This is not financial or investment advice.

About Peter Kiriazopoulos

Licensed REALTOR® with Kompass Realty Group, serving buyers and sellers across Markham, Stouffville, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, Toronto, and the Greater Toronto Area.

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