KOMPASS REALTY GROUP   |   GTA HOUSING WEEK IN REVIEW

Rate Day Looms, Condo Sales Hit a 35-Year Low,
and OSFI Sounds the Alarm

Sunday, April 26, 2026   •   By Peter Kiriazopoulos, REALTOR®

Big week ahead. The Bank of Canada steps up to the mic on Wednesday, a major TRREB policy report dropped Thursday, and the Toronto condo market kept making the kind of headlines you don’t want to read with your morning coffee. If you’re buying, selling, or just trying to figure out what your home is worth in Stouffville, Markham, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, or anywhere across the GTA — here’s what actually matters from the past seven days.

This Week at a Glance

1. The Bank of Canada’s April 29 Decision Is Three Days Away

Wednesday is the big one. The Bank of Canada makes its next interest rate call, and this isn’t just any announcement — it comes packaged with the full Monetary Policy Report, which lays out the Bank’s projections for inflation, growth, and the labour market.

Markets are pricing in roughly a 92% chance the Bank holds at 2.25% — the same rate it has sat at since the start of the year. Bay Street consensus is that the rapid cutting phase of 2025 is over, and the next move is more likely a hike than another cut. Rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical noise have all but killed any rate-cut momentum, and bond yields have already pushed fixed mortgage rates higher — the best 5-year fixed is now around 4.04% on insured mortgages, while the best 5-year variable is around 3.35%.

Sources: Bank of Canada rate statements; nesto Mortgage Rates Forecast 2026-2030.

What this means for you: if you’ve been waiting for a magical drop in rates to make your move, that drop probably isn’t coming this spring. Variable-rate holders aren’t getting fresh relief. Anyone shopping for a fixed mortgage is going to pay slightly more than they would have a few weeks ago. If a pre-approval is sitting in your inbox, lock it before Wednesday.

2. Toronto’s New-Condo Market Just Hit a 35-Year Low

If you’ve been watching condos, you already know things are ugly. The latest Urbanation data confirms it: only 246 new condos sold across the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area in Q1 2026 — down 52% from a year earlier and the worst quarter in at least 35 years. For the first time in three decades, not a single new project was launched.

Source: Urbanation Q1 2026 Condominium Market Survey.

Here’s the kicker. There are now a record 4,295 completed but unsold new condo units sitting on the market — more than double last year and nearly five times the level of two years ago. That’s about 92 months of standing supply at the current pace of sale. To move units, some Toronto developers are now lowering asking prices below their construction cost, accepting losses just to clear inventory.

Source: Urbanation; standing inventory of completed-but-unsold new condos, GTA.

Average asking on standing inventory is down to $1,189 per square foot — a 13% drop from the 2023 peak — but resale comps in the same buildings are averaging just $859 per square foot. That’s a 38% gap between new and resale, the widest on record.

For buyers across Toronto and the 905, this is the kind of dislocation that creates real opportunities — but you have to know what you’re buying. A discounted pre-construction unit isn’t always the deal it looks like once you factor in closing costs, occupancy fees, and a market that may take a couple of years to find its footing again. For sellers of resale condos in Markham, Richmond Hill, North York, or downtown — be realistic on price. Inventory is your competition, and there is a lot of it.

3. TRREB’s “Removing Roadblocks” Report Calls Out 13 Municipal Barriers

On Thursday, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board released a 2026 housing policy report titled “Removing Roadblocks: Tackling Municipal Barriers to Housing Supply and Affordability in Ontario.” It’s a direct shot across the bow at how Ontario’s cities and towns regulate housing — and it identifies 13 specific policy barriers that, in TRREB’s view, are slowing down or driving up the cost of new homes.

It follows the Carney–Ford development-charge deal announced earlier in April, which committed $8.8B to cut Ontario development charges by up to 50%. Together, the two announcements are the strongest supply-side push we’ve seen from any level of government in years.

Why this matters for the average GTA homeowner: every dollar of municipal fees, every extra approval step, and every zoning restriction ultimately gets baked into the price you see on a listing. If even half of TRREB’s recommendations get adopted, we’d see a real increase in housing diversity — more townhouses, more missing middle, more ground-related family housing in places like Aurora, Newmarket, and Stouffville where supply has been structurally thin for years.

4. CREA Trims the 2026 Forecast — But York Region Holds Up

The Canadian Real Estate Association quietly downgraded its 2026 forecast a couple of weeks back, and this week’s regional data is starting to confirm why. CREA now expects 474,972 sales in 2026 (just 1% above 2025) and a national average price of $688,955 — up only 1.5% on the year. That’s a far cry from the recovery story some predicted at the start of 2026.

What’s holding things back? Three things, mostly: a jump in fixed mortgage rates as bond yields climb, weaker-than-expected sales in Q1, and a tariff-and-uncertainty fog that has buyers and sellers both waiting on the sidelines. Royal LePage has already said it expects Toronto prices to keep declining through Q2 even as other Canadian markets rebound — Toronto’s Q1 aggregate was $1,070,600, down 4.8% year-over-year.

Sources: TRREB, Royal LePage Q1 2026, Zolo (Markham, Newmarket), Whitchurch-Stouffville median sold (April 2026).

For York Region specifically, the picture is more nuanced. Markham’s average sale price sits at roughly $1,153,717 with a median 24 days on market. Newmarket is at $1,035,537 with 22 days on market. Stouffville detached is around $1,420,000 — actually up 4.4% year-over-year, holding up better than the broader GTA. Buyers shouldn’t expect a fire sale, but they shouldn’t be in a hurry to overpay either.

5. OSFI Just Flagged Real Estate as Canada’s #1 Systemic Risk

Here’s one that didn’t get the front-page treatment it deserved. Canada’s banking regulator, OSFI, just moved real-estate-secured lending and mortgage risk from the #4 to the #1 spot in its 2026/2027 Annual Risk Outlook. That’s a notable upgrade — and it tells you exactly where the regulator’s eyes are right now.

Why? Roughly 3.1 million Canadian mortgages — about 52% of the entire market — renew between now and the end of 2027. Many were locked in at pandemic-era rates near 2%. The “renewal cliff” everyone was warning about a year ago has softened into a “renewal hill” thanks to longer amortizations and stronger personal income growth, but TD Economics still expects average mortgage payment increases around 6% in 2026. About 10% of borrowers could see payment shock north of 40%.

If you’re renewing this year or next, don’t sleepwalk through it. Shop the rate. Talk to a broker. Run a payment scenario at 4% and one at 5% so you know what your worst case looks like. And if you’ve been thinking about selling, the renewal pressure on existing owners is part of why we’ll keep seeing motivated sellers come to market across the GTA over the next 18 months.

Peter’s Take

Here’s how I’m reading the week, sitting at my desk in Stouffville with a coffee and a market sheet.

For buyers — the next 60 days are shaping up to be one of the better windows we’ve had in a while, but only if you’re realistic. The Bank of Canada isn’t riding to your rescue with a surprise rate cut. Lock in a pre-approval before fixed rates drift higher. If you’re considering a condo in Toronto, Markham, or anywhere along the Yonge corridor, take advantage of the developer discounts cautiously and lean toward resale where you can see real comps. 

For sellers — price it right or don’t list it. Buyers have seen the headlines too. They know about the unsold condo inventory, they know about the renewal pressure, they know rates aren’t dropping. The homes actually moving in 22-24 days in York Region are the ones that nail the price out of the gate. Overpricing right now means weeks of crickets followed by a price cut anyway — and you’ll have lost momentum.

For investors — the math is different than it was 18 months ago. With OSFI tightening the screws and rates likely sticky for the rest of 2026, cash flow has to actually work on day one — no more buying for appreciation alone. The TRREB supply report and the development-charge deal are net positives long-term, but they take years to flow into completed inventory. In the meantime, ground-related rentals in York Region are still your best risk-adjusted bet.

If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation — buying, selling, holding, or just trying to make sense of the noise — that’s what I’m here for. Reach out anytime.

— Peter

About Peter

Sources

•  Bank of Canada — March 18, 2026 Rate Statement  https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18/

•  nesto — Mortgage Rates Forecast Canada 2026-2030  https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/mortgage-rates-forecast-canada/

•  TRREB — Removing Roadblocks Housing Report (April 23, 2026)  https://trreb.ca/new-trreb-housing-report-recommends-action-to-remove-remaining-roadblocks-to-a-more-diverse-housing-supply/

•  Yahoo Finance Canada — Toronto's Condo Market Hits Bottom  https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/torontos-condo-market-hits-bottom-100009098.html

•  Urbanation — Standing Condo Inventory Hits Record High in Q1  https://www.urbanation.ca/news/standing-condo-inventory-hits-record-high-q1

•  CP24 — Toronto Condo Sales Hit 35-Year Low (April 17, 2026)  https://www.cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/04/17/toronto-condo-market-hits-35-year-low-as-sales-continue-to-plunge-with-no-new-project-launches/

•  CREA — Resale Forecast Updated for 2026 and 2027  https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/crea-downgrades-resale-housing-market-forecast-amid-tariff-uncertainty-and-economic-uncertainty/

•  CTV News — Royal LePage Q1 2026 Report  https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate/article/home-prices-expected-to-tick-higher-in-2026-amid-market-reset-royal-lepage-report/

•  TD Economics — Mortgage Renewal Mission Possible  https://economics.td.com/ca-mortgage-renewal-mission-possible

•  Zolo — Markham Real Estate Trends  https://www.zolo.ca/markham-real-estate/trends

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© 2026 Peter Kiriazopoulos. Market data sourced from public reporting; not investment advice.