Weekly GTA Housing Market Brief

A Rate Hike Is Suddenly Likely, Bulk Buyers Are Clearing Condos,
and Toronto Votes on Housing Tomorrow.

Sunday, October 25, 2026  ·  Peter Kiriazopoulos, Kompass Realty Group

*On a $618,480 variable mortgage, 25-year amortization (Kompass calculation).

Welcome back. Here's the frame I'd use heading into the week: seven days ago the question was whether the Bank of Canada would hold. This week the question is whether it hikes. September inflation came in at 3.1%, Governor Macklem's weekend comments were read as a signal, and a Reuters poll of economists flipped from hold to hike.

There are two clocks running. The Bank of Canada announces on Wednesday, and Toronto votes for a mayor tomorrow with housing at the top of the voter list. Meanwhile the new-condo market is showing a few signs of life, though most of it is investors buying finished units at a discount. For buyers and sellers in Markham, Stouffville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Newmarket, Scarborough and Toronto, here is what matters.

This Week at a Glance

1. A Hike Went From Long Shot to Base Case in One Week

A Reuters poll of 34 economists taken October 21 to 23 found 19 expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50% on Wednesday, its first move in a year. In the previous poll, 80% expected a hold through the end of 2026. Interest rate futures moved from roughly a 30% chance of an October hike to about three in four. Other trackers put it even higher, and one newsletter cites 87%, so treat any single number as approximate.

What changed? Weekend comments from Governor Macklem that markets read as a hint a hike is coming, after the Bank's own business survey showed inflation expectations rising sharply. The poll also found 16 of 29 economists expect one more hike before the end of March, which would take the rate to 2.75%. Not everyone agrees. Some economists still see a hold, pointing to a weak labour market (Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September) and soft underlying inflation, and RBC's economists attribute the hike call to the Bank's shifting communication rather than urgency.

2. September CPI at 3.1%: It's the Gas Pump, Not the Grocery Aisle

Statistics Canada reported on Monday that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% year over year in September, up from 3.0% in August and a touch below the 3.2% analysts expected. Gasoline prices were up 27.8% from a year ago, compared with 22.8% in August, as crude hit its highest level since May. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2%, down from 2.4%, and excluding food and energy it held at 2.1%.

The Bank's preferred core measures were softer still: CPI-trim at 1.8%, CPI-median at 1.9% and CPI-common at 2.4%. Grocery inflation eased to 1.7%, the smallest annual increase since May 2024. That's the tension. Headline inflation is above where the Bank wants it, but almost all of the upward pressure is energy, which a rate hike can't fix. CBC described the Bank's position as an uncomfortable balance, and that is a fair read. If you're trying to guess Wednesday, remember that the Bank also publishes a new Monetary Policy Report that day, and Reuters expects its forecasts to be revised higher.

3. Bulk Buyers Are Clearing Condos, but Finished Units Are Doing All the Work

Urbanation's Q3 numbers, covered by CP24 on Wednesday, show GTHA new-condo sales of 760 units, roughly double last year and the second straight quarter of growth. Context matters: that is still 78% below the 10-year Q3 average. The mix is the real story. Investment groups bought 339 units, or 45% of sales, and sales in completed buildings reached a record 648 units, 85% of the total. Pre-construction sales were just 60 units, the twelfth straight quarter of annual declines.

John Pasalis's read is that end-user demand remains weak, builders are still holding thousands of completed and unsold units, and bulk buyers are negotiating steep discounts to take them. High Art Capital, which received provincial funding, and Jesta Group, which announced a roughly $500 million programme in May, are the best-known examples, and smaller family offices are buying 10 to 20 units each. Urbanation's Shaun Hildebrand adds a longer-term wrinkle: bulk buyers are helping clear inventory, but a thinning pipeline of new projects could mean a real shortage by the end of the decade. Both can be true. There is still a sizable backlog today, and the future pipeline is shrinking.

For buyers in the 416 and Scarborough, this is the two-tier market in action: discounted completed condos on one side, a dormant presale market on the other. If you're considering a condo, completed units with real discounts are where the negotiating room is.

4. Toronto Votes Tomorrow, and What a Hike Means for Your Mortgage

Toronto's municipal election is tomorrow, October 26. An Ipsos poll commissioned by TRREB found 85% of voters concerned about housing affordability and 69% saying housing will affect how they vote. After candidate Chris Alexander withdrew on October 6, the race is largely Mayor Olivia Chow against Councillor Brad Bradford. Bradford is promising a first-year property tax freeze and to scrap the land transfer tax on homes under $1.1 million, and he says Chow has delivered only 1,500 of the 65,000 rent-controlled homes the city has promised by 2030. For York Region buyers, the municipal result matters less directly, but Toronto's fees and approvals shape the new-build market the whole GTA competes with.

On mortgages, MoneySense lists the best three- and five-year fixed rates at 4.34% and the lowest variable rate at 3.43%, with prime at 4.45%. A quarter-point hike would lift variable rates to about 3.7% and prime to 4.70%. On MoneySense's example mortgage of $618,480, the payment is about $3,072 a month today. By my math it rises to roughly $3,154 after one hike and $3,237 after two. Fixed rates follow bond yields, which are near their highs for the year, and the same article suggests they won't fall meaningfully without a drop of around 60 basis points in three- and five-year yields. If your renewal is in the next six months, get a written rate hold now and compare your bank's offer with a broker's.

Peter's Take

Here's how I'm reading it. The Bank of Canada may raise rates into a weak job market because inflation expectations are rising, and the GTA housing market is still in a holding pattern after TRREB's September data last week. A hike is a cost to plan for, not a reason to panic.

If you're buying: qualify at a rate a half point above today's and get a written rate hold. Negotiating room still exists, especially on completed condos and listings that have sat. Higher rates are why many buyers are waiting, which means fewer rivals for you if you're ready.

If you're selling: price to recent sales and plan for a buyer whose budget just shrank by a few thousand dollars. Freehold homes in Markham, Stouffville and Richmond Hill with clean presentation are still drawing interest, but a hike can shift the buyer pool quickly.

If you're investing: the bulk buyers are getting discounts, not just units. If you're underwriting a condo, assume a higher rate, longer vacancy, and negotiate hard. The deal has to work before appreciation.

What to watch next: the Toronto election result tomorrow; the Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday, October 28; TRREB's October data in early November; and the December 9 decision. If you'd like to talk through your renewal date, your street or your price range, reach out. That conversation is always more useful than the general one.

Sources

_{•  Statistics Canada - The Daily, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (October 19, 2026): www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261019/dq261019a-eng.htm}

_{•  CBC News - "Bank of Canada faces 'uncomfortable balance' as gas prices drive inflation higher in September": cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-september-2026-9.7386437}

_{•  Reuters poll via U.S. News - "Bank of Canada to raise rates to 2.50% on October 28 and once again by end-March" (October 23, 2026): money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-23/bank-of-canada-to-raise-rates-to-2-50-on-october-28-and-once-again-by-end-march}

_{•  MoneySense - Bank of Canada interest rate forecast: what to expect on October 28: moneysense.ca/news/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-forecast-october-2026/}

_{•  MPA - Bank of Canada's next move: what top economists are saying: mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/bank-of-canadas-next-move-what-top-economists-are-saying/594101}

_{•  Scotiabank Economics - Daily Points, October 19, 2026 (Macklem weekend comments, market pricing): scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics}

_{•  CP24 / The Canadian Press - "Bulk new condo purchases boosting sales in GTHA, but the supply pipeline is drying up: report" (October 21, 2026), citing Urbanation: cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/10/21/bulk-new-condo-purchases-boosting-sales-in-gtha-but-the-supply-pipeline-is-drying-up-report/}

_{•  Storeys / BNN Bloomberg - Daniel Foch and John Pasalis on September GTA condo data (October 6, 2026), for context}

_{•  Ipsos poll for TRREB (September 2026) and TRREB Municipal Election Watch: trreb.ca/?p=9562}

_{•  NOW Toronto - Toronto mayoral debate, Chow and Bradford: nowtoronto.com/news/toronto-mayoral-debate-chow-bradford-2026/}

_{•  Reuters-poll hike odds, futures pricing and mortgage rates are approximate and vary by source; monthly payments are Kompass calculations.}

Peter Kiriazopoulos, Sales Representative  ·  Kompass Realty Group  ·  RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage  ·  1739 Bayview Avenue, Toronto

This brief is provided for general information only and is not intended as financial, mortgage, legal or tax advice. Market data is sourced as cited above and is subject to revision. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.

Weekly GTA Housing Market Brief

The Forecasters Blinked, Builders Are Slowing Down,
and Tomorrow's CPI Could Move the Bank.

Sunday, October 18, 2026  ·  Peter Kiriazopoulos, Kompass Realty Group

Welcome back. Here's the frame I'd use heading into the week: for six weeks the story was higher fixed rates and hesitant buyers. This week the forecasters caught up. CREA cut its national outlook for the third time this year, Royal LePage trimmed its Q4 call, and CMHC reported that actual housing starts in larger urban centres fell again.

There is a clock on all of this. Statistics Canada releases September inflation on Monday morning, and the Bank of Canada decides on October 28. For buyers and sellers in Markham, Stouffville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Newmarket, Scarborough and Toronto, the practical question is simple: does patience pay, and for whom?

This Week at a Glance

1. CREA's Third Forecast Cut: Rate-Hike Worries Have Pushed Sales Down

CREA released its September numbers on Friday: national sales were down 7.7% from a year ago and 2.3% from August. The national average price was $666,538, down 1.6%, and the MLS Home Price Index slipped 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year. New listings eased 1.8% from August, while active listings, just over 200,000, were still up 1.8% year over year.

The more important number is the forecast. CREA now expects 444,530 sales in 2026, down 5.2%, compared with a 1.4% decline projected in July and growth projected at the start of the year. That's three downgrades in a row. It also trimmed its 2026 average price outlook to about $681,681, up just 0.2%. For 2027, CREA expects a recovery of about 4.4% in sales, which tells you the view is delay, not collapse.

CREA's own explanation is worth noting: higher fixed mortgage rates, uncertainty around variable rates and a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada. Their economist added that a Bank of Canada hike before year-end is widely expected, and the open question is how far rates must rise next year. A mortgage broker quoted in the coverage described the market as a standoff over which side gives in first, with many sellers likely to wait until early next year. TD's economist sees borrowing costs as the main driver, and expects loose supply and demand to weigh on Ontario and B.C. prices in 2027.

2. Royal LePage Q3: The GTA Is Softer Than the Country, and the Q4 Call Is Still Negative

Royal LePage's Q3 House Price Survey, released Thursday, puts the GTA aggregate price at $1,073,100, down 3.7% from a year ago and 2.6% from Q2. The detached median was $1,364,400 (−2.8%) and the condo median $641,500 (−4.1%). Nationally the aggregate was $810,000, down 0.8%, so the GTA continues to lag. Royal LePage expects the GTA aggregate to be down about 2% year over year in Q4, and trimmed its national call to a 1.0% gain from 2.0%.

Royal LePage's reading of the mood is useful for anyone with a home in York Region. Phil Soper's view is that buyers are hesitating more because they are unsure about the future than because they can't afford homes today. That gives buyers negotiating room, though they don't control what drives their confidence. He frames this as a detour rather than a derailment, and expects the Bank of Canada to hold through 2026 and hike in early 2027. The survey ties the slowdown to the U.S. tariffs imposed after trade talks collapsed in August, and to the prospect of higher borrowing costs.

A note on reading these reports: the figures don't match, and they aren't supposed to. TRREB reported a September average price down 5.1%, Royal LePage reports an aggregate price survey for the quarter, and CREA tracks national averages and a benchmark index. The measures differ in method and timing, but the direction is consistent, and the GTA is weaker than the national picture. Don't compare one headline number to another. Compare the trend.

3. CMHC: Starts Ticked Up in September, but Urban Construction Is Still Slowing

CMHC reported that the seasonally adjusted annual pace of housing starts was 248,896 units in September, up from 242,223 in August, and the six-month trend edged up 0.6% to 250,411. That sounds encouraging until you read the underlying count. Actual starts in centres of 10,000 people or more were 19,984, down 11% from 22,375 a year ago, and year-to-date starts of 170,964 are down 4%. Of the four most populous provinces, only Quebec is showing modest gains for 2026.

Why does a Stouffville or Markham buyer care about national construction data? Because it shapes what the market looks like when confidence returns. Fewer starts today mean fewer completions in two to three years, and CMHC continues to describe a long-term supply gap. The near-term market is soft, but the structural story, especially for freehold homes in York Region where land is limited, has not gone away. Buyers waiting for a deeper discount should weigh that against the risk that the window narrows once rates and confidence stabilize.

4. Monday's CPI and the October 28 Decision: What to Watch Before You Lock a Rate

Statistics Canada releases September CPI on Monday, October 19, at 8:30 a.m.. Headline inflation was 3.0% in August for the second month in a row, with core measures near 2%. The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for a year, and its next decisions are October 28 and December 9. Views are split: Royal LePage's Soper expects holds through 2026 and a hike in early 2027, a banking executive quoted in the survey coverage expects an October increase, and CREA says a hike before year-end is widely expected. I'm not going to pretend to know which it is. After the weak September jobs report I covered last week, odds of an October move had fallen, and Monday's inflation number is the next thing that can change them.

On mortgages, I don't have a clean new quote this week, so treat these as early-October levels: best insured five-year fixed rates were around 4.24% to 4.34%, with the best variable around 3.25% to 3.40% and prime at 4.45%. Fixed rates follow the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which hit about 3.73% in late September and eased to roughly 3.56% by October 9. Royal LePage's renewal survey found 38% of mortgage holders expect higher payments at renewal. If you renew in the next six months, shop early, get a written rate hold, and compare your bank's offer with a broker's.

Peter's Take

Here's how I'm reading it. Three different organizations looked at the same market this week and reached a similar conclusion: buyers are waiting, sellers are waiting, and the forecasters are moving their timelines out. A slower market isn't a broken market. It's a market where preparation counts for more than speed.

If you're buying: you have more room to negotiate, particularly on condos and on homes that have sat on the market. Get pre-approved with a written rate hold, keep your conditions, and run your numbers at a rate a quarter point higher than today's.

If you're selling: price to recent sales, not to the spring. Many owners are choosing to wait until early next year, which can mean fewer competing listings later, but it also means carrying costs in the meantime. If you need to sell this fall, presentation and pricing matter more than ever.

If you're investing: underwrite on higher rates and assume longer vacancy. A lower entry price helps, but the benefit disappears if the rent doesn't cover a more expensive mortgage.

What to watch next: September CPI on Monday, October 19; the Toronto municipal election on October 26; the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision and new forecast; and TRREB's October data in early November. If you'd like to talk through your street, price range or renewal date, reach out. That conversation is always more useful than the general one.

^Sources

^{•  CREA - September 2026 national sales statistics and forecast update (October 16, 2026), via The Canadian Press: cp24.com/news/canada/2026/10/16/crea-downgrades-home-sales-forecast-for-the-third-time-this-year}

^{•  BNN Bloomberg - "CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year," October 16, 2026: bnnbloomberg.ca/business/real-estate/2026/10/16/crea-downgrades-home-sales-forecast-for-the-third-time-this-year/}

^{•  Royal LePage - Q3 2026 House Price Survey (October 15, 2026), via MPA: mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/royal-lepage-trade-tensions-stall-canadas-fall-housing-market/593699}

^{•  BlogTO - Toronto home prices, Royal LePage Q3 2026 (October 2026): blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2026/10/toronto-home-prices-hit-year/}

^{•  CMHC - Housing Starts, September 2026 (October 16, 2026): cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-construction-data-september-2026}

^{•  CP24 / The Canadian Press - "CMHC reports annual pace of housing starts in September up from August," October 16, 2026: cp24.com/news/canada/2026/10/16/cmhc-reports-annual-pace-of-housing-starts-in-september-up-from-august/}

^{•  TRREB - Market Watch, September 2026 (October 6, 2026): trreb.ca (average price -5.1% YoY, as covered in last week's brief)}

^{•  Statistics Canada - CPI release schedule (September CPI due October 19, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET); August CPI 3.0% per MPA coverage}

^{•  Mortgage and bond-yield levels as of early October 2026 (ratehub.ca, nesto.ca, immigrationnewscanada.ca); figures approximate and sources differ}

^{•  Toronto municipal election date (October 26, 2026): NOW Toronto / Storeys coverage}

Peter Kiriazopoulos, Sales Representative  ·  Kompass Realty Group  ·  RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage  ·  1739 Bayview Avenue, Toronto

This brief is provided for general information only and is not intended as financial, mortgage, legal or tax advice. Market data is sourced as cited above and is subject to revision. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.

Weekly GTA Housing Market Brief

Buyers Are Waiting, the Job Market Blinked,
and Fixed Rates Won't Stop Climbing.

Sunday, October 11, 2026  ·  Peter Kiriazopoulos, Kompass Realty Group

Welcome back. Here's the frame I'd use heading into the week: last Sunday I told you the first read on September pointed to a stalemate. The official numbers are in, and they agree. But the bigger surprise came on Friday, when Statistics Canada reported that the economy lost another 68,000 jobs.

That matters for housing in a specific way. Rising fixed mortgage rates have been the story for six weeks. Now buyers in Markham, Stouffville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Newmarket, Scarborough and Toronto are being asked to take on a bigger payment at a moment when job security is less certain. Hesitation is the rational response, and it shows up in every number below.

This Week at a Glance

1. TRREB Confirms It: Listings Fell Faster Than Sales, and Prices Still Slipped

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board released its September Market Watch on Tuesday: 5,040 sales, down 9% from a year ago, on 16,500 new listings, down 14.4%. The average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1% from $1,060,036, and the MLS HPI composite benchmark was down 4.7%. It lines up closely with John Pasalis's early read at Move Smartly, which I covered last week, so the signal is now consistent across two data sets.

The framing from TRREB is that buyers are in a holding pattern. Economic, inflation and borrowing-cost uncertainty are weighing on decisions, and the renewed trade tensions with the U.S. and higher gas prices are not helping. Broker Cailey Heaps notes that ultra-luxury and first-time buyers are still active, while move-up buyers are mostly staying out because of job worries. That last point is worth sitting with: move-up buyers are the people who sell a Markham or Vaughan townhouse to buy a detached home, and when they pause, the whole chain slows down.

Supply is easing, not vanishing. Fresh listings are pulling back as sellers who don't have to sell choose to wait, and the active pool is still sizable, so buyers still have genuine choice. Because demand is easing at the same time, it hasn't turned into higher prices. By property type, the average detached price fell about 5%, townhouses about 4.6% and semis were roughly flat, while condos fell the most.

There's an interesting side note from TRREB's president: with Toronto's municipal election on October 26, housing affordability, supply and the cost of buying a home are shaping up as top voter issues. Whatever the outcome, municipal policy on approvals and fees will influence the next four years of supply.

2. Condos: Two-Thirds Sold Under $600K, and the 905 Is Falling Fastest

Daniel Foch's breakdown of the TRREB data for Storeys shows the condo market in detail. There were 1,316 condo apartment sales in September, down 7.8%. The average price was $605,257, down 7.7%, the steepest decline of any housing type. About 68% of sales (893) were under $600,000, and 45% (594) were under $500,000.

The geographic split is the part most headlines miss. In the City of Toronto, 884 condos sold at an average of $640,248, down 6.1%. In the 905 regions, 432 sold at $533,654, down 12%, on a 12.4% drop in sales. Month-end listings work out to about 6 per sale in Toronto and 6.7 per sale in the 905, which gives buyers more leverage in places like Scarborough's edges, Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill's newer towers. BNN Bloomberg also ran a segment this week with Pasalis on condo prices touching a six-year low.

What I'd tell each side: buyers should treat the 905 condo market as a negotiation, with inspection, status certificate review and financing conditions all back in play. Sellers should price against recent sales, not asking prices, because the gap is wide. Investors should remember that a lower purchase price only helps if the rent covers a mortgage that is getting more expensive, not cheaper. A bottom may be forming, but it is a process, not an event.

3. Canada Lost 68,000 Jobs, and the October Rate Hike Odds Dropped

Statistics Canada's September labour force survey, released Friday, showed a net loss of 68,000 jobs after a loss of about 42,000 in August. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a small gain of about 9,000. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%, and the participation rate fell to 64.8%, its lowest in 29 years outside the pandemic. Year to date, Canada is down about 41,200 jobs compared with a gain of 211,300 over the same period last year. Ontario lost about 20,000 jobs in the month. Youth employment fell by 48,000, and the losses were concentrated in education, health and social assistance and manufacturing.

Wage growth ticked up to 2.3%, so this is not a story of collapsing pay. It's a story of a softening labour market while energy prices keep inflation elevated, which is the awkward mix the Bank of Canada has been worried about. Desjardins' Royce Mendes says the weak report makes an unchanged rate more likely on October 28, though higher energy prices feeding into other categories could still force tighter policy later. TD's Andrew Hencic expects unemployment to tread water as trade friction and higher rates weigh on activity.

Where does that leave the market's pricing? Odds of a quarter-point hike on October 28 peaked near 59% in late September, were closer to one in three by the first days of October, and sit roughly in the 25% to 40% range depending on the tracker I checked. Sources disagree, so please treat that as a range, not a single number. Several outlets now say traders expect a move in December instead, and one research note calls for a hold on the 28th and a hike by Christmas. The next catalyst is September CPI on October 19.

4. Fixed Rates Are Still Rising Even Though Bond Yields Backed Off

Here's something that surprises many homeowners: fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada's overnight rate, and the lenders are slower to cut than to raise. The five-year yield touched a 52-week high near 3.73% on September 28 before easing to about 3.56% after the jobs report. But all six of the big banks have raised some fixed rates since early September.

The most recent moves: BMO raised its standard five-year fixed by 20 basis points to 5.14% and its special three-year to 4.94% on October 7. CIBC raised its one- to four-year fixed rates by 15 basis points and its five-year by 20 on October 9. RBC raised its one- to five-year terms by 10 to 20 basis points earlier in the month, and Scotiabank's advertised two-year is now 5.14%. Among discount lenders, the best insured five-year fixed has moved from 4.09% at the end of August to roughly 4.24% to 4.34% depending on the lender and down payment, with the best five-year variable around 3.25% to 3.40% and prime unchanged at 4.45%.

CMHC estimates about 1.15 million mortgages renew in 2026 and another 940,000 in 2027. If your renewal is in the next four to six months, the bond-yield pullback may give some relief, but I wouldn't count on it. Get quotes from your bank and from a broker, ask for a written rate hold, and don't assume your lender's renewal letter is its best offer.

Peter's Take

Here's how I'm reading it. For six weeks, buyers have been asked to absorb higher fixed rates, a trade fight with the U.S. and a stubborn oil price. This week they were handed a weaker job market too. The market's response is not panic. It's patience. Patient buyers and reluctant sellers produce a quiet market, and quiet markets reward preparation.

If you're buying: the leverage is yours, especially on condos in the 905 and on homes that have sat more than a few weeks. Secure a written rate hold, keep your conditions, and make sure your payment still works if rates move another quarter point. If your job feels less certain than it did in the spring, say so to your mortgage broker early.

If you're selling: price to what sold in the last 60 days, not to spring. Fewer competing listings help, but they don't guarantee a premium when buyers are cautious. Presentation, pricing and timing matter more than they have in years.

If you're investing: underwrite at today's rates plus a hike, and assume longer vacancy and more incentives. Lower prices help your entry point, but a weaker job market also hits tenant demand.

What to watch next: September CPI on October 19; CMHC September housing starts in mid-October; the Toronto municipal election on October 26; and the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision and new forecast. If you'd like to talk through what this means for your street, price range or renewal date, reach out. That conversation is always more useful than the general one.

Sources

•  TRREB - Market Watch, September 2026 (released October 6, 2026): trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2609.pdf

•  CP24 / The Canadian Press - "Rising mortgage rates, tariff tensions weigh on Greater Toronto September home sales," October 6, 2026: cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/10/06/greater-toronto-home-sales-in-september-down-from-year-ago-average-price-also-lower/

•  Storeys (Daniel Foch) - "Two Thirds Of GTA Condos Sold For Less Than $600K In September," October 6, 2026: storeys.com/gta-condos-trreb-market-watch/

•  BNN Bloomberg - "Toronto condo prices hit six-year low" (John Pasalis), October 6, 2026: bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-street/2026/10/06/toronto-condo-prices-hit-six-year-low/

•  Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey, September 2026 (October 9, 2026); coverage: CBC, Globe and Mail, The Hub (thehub.ca/2026/10/09/canada-shed-68000-jobs-in-september-statistics-canada-reports/), Advisor.ca

•  BNN Bloomberg - "Canada's 2026 job gains have been erased," October 9, 2026 (Desjardins' Royce Mendes): bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/09/canadas-2026-job-gains-have-been-erased-the-hardest-hit-area-wasnt-the-one-facing-us-tariffs/

•  Finimize - "Canada's September Job Report Landed With A Thud" (TD's Andrew Hencic), October 2026: finimize.com/content/canadas-september-jobs-report-put-the-boc-in-focus

•  Bank of Canada odds trackers (bankofcanadaodds.com, insightfinance.ca, thenorthledgermoney.substack.com), accessed October 10-11, 2026; figures approximate and sources differ

•  Big-bank fixed-rate increases (BMO Oct 7, CIBC Oct 9, RBC, Scotiabank): money.ca; nesto.ca; Ratehub.ca; WOWA.ca, as of October 9-10, 2026

•  Move Smartly (John Pasalis) - "GTA Home Sales Slow Again in September," October 2, 2026 (referenced from last week's brief)

•  CMHC - mortgage renewal estimates (1.15M in 2026; 940,000 in 2027), as cited by nesto.ca / money.ca, October 2026

Peter Kiriazopoulos, Sales Representative  ·  Kompass Realty Group  ·  RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage  ·  1739 Bayview Avenue, Toronto

This brief is provided for general information only and is not intended as financial, mortgage, legal or tax advice. Market data is sourced as cited above and is subject to revision. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.

Weekly GTA Housing Market Brief

Condo Sales Hit a Two-Decade Low, Houses Slid 10%,
and the Bank of Canada Is Still a Coin Flip.

Sunday, October 4, 2026  ·  Peter Kiriazopoulos, Kompass Realty Group

Welcome back. Here's the frame I'd use heading into the week: September is the first month where we can see how GTA buyers reacted to rising fixed mortgage rates and the collapse of the Canada-U.S. trade talks, and the early answer is they stepped back.

TRREB's official September numbers aren't out yet, but John Pasalis at Move Smartly published his read on Friday, and it's the freshest local data we have. Layer on a flat July GDP, an oil price that won't come down, and a central bank decision on October 28 that markets can't call, and you have a week worth slowing down for. The numbers below matter whether you're looking in Markham, Stouffville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Newmarket, Scarborough or Toronto.

This Week at a Glance

1. September Was Slower, and the Pullback in Listings Didn't Save Prices

Move Smartly's September report shows GTA house sales down 10% from a year earlier, after giving back 2% in July and 3% in August. That's the third straight month of a widening gap. New house listings fell 14% and active listings fell 16%, so the supply side is pulling back too. The average house price was $1,223,084, down 4%, and the median was $1,025,000, down 6%.

The interesting part is how those numbers fit together. Fewer new listings are coming to market, and the pool of homes for sale is slowly drawing down - months of inventory eased to 4.7 from 5.1 a year ago. Normally, that starts to firm up prices. It hasn't, because demand is pulling back at roughly the same pace. Pasalis puts the blame on two things: higher interest rates, with fixed mortgages now in the mid-4% range and more increases expected, and consumer confidence taking a hit from Canada's collapsed trade talks with the United States. His read for the rest of 2026 is a market that's weakening, not heating up.

I want to be careful with the word "tightening" here, because I've used it in this brief before. There's still a real backlog of homes for sale, and buyers still have genuine choice. What's changing is the flow of fresh listings, which is thinning as sellers who don't have to sell choose to wait. That's an early, in-progress shift, not a shortage - and with demand softening at the same time, it hasn't translated into higher prices yet.

What does that mean on the ground in York Region? In practice, well-presented, fairly priced detached homes in Stouffville, Markham and Richmond Hill still attract buyers, but there's little reason for anyone to overpay or rush. Sellers who price to the market sell. Sellers who price to last spring's headlines wait. And buyers can ask for inspection and financing conditions again.

2. Condos: Lowest Sales in the Data, Lowest Prices Since 2019

The condo numbers are the weakest in the report. GTA condo sales fell 8% from last year to 1,712 units - the lowest September total in Move Smartly's data, which goes back to 2003. The median condo price was $547,750, down 10% and the lowest since September 2019, with the average at $629,066, down 7%. New listings fell 14% and active listings fell 16%, mirroring the house market.

Condo inventory is still heavier than houses: 6.1 months, compared with 4.7 for houses. That's down from 6.7 a year ago, so the backlog is clearing gradually, but 6 months or more is the zone where buyers hold most of the leverage. That's the case in condo-heavy pockets of Scarborough, North York and downtown, and in newer buildings in Markham and Vaughan.

For buyers, this is a negotiating market and a patient one. For sellers, the message is blunt: you're competing with other resale units and with builders still cutting prices on finished new inventory. For investors, remember that a low entry price only helps if the rent covers the carrying cost - and with mortgage rates going up, not down, that's a harder test than it was a few months ago. There's also a reasonable bottoming argument: sales and prices at multi-year lows, new condo construction almost frozen, and institutional buyers like the Ontario-backed High Art Capital fund bargain hunting. But a bottom is a process, not an event, and we aren't there yet.

3. A Flat July, Oil Above US$100, and a Rate Decision Nobody Can Call

Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that real GDP was essentially flat in July, right on its earlier flash estimate. June was revised up to +0.4%, and the early read on August is +0.2%. Construction grew for a fourth straight month (+1.3%) and utilities rebounded, but manufacturing fell 0.9% and retail slipped 1%, with the World Cup giving accommodation a lift. TD's Marc Ercolao describes the economy as zigzagging up and down since early 2025. KPMG's Peter Shannon thinks the U.S. tariffs will meaningfully hit in September and show up fully in the fourth quarter. BMO's Benjamin Reitzes has third-quarter growth tracking at 1.5% to 2%, which is roughly in line with the Bank of Canada.

Why this matters for the housing market comes down to the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision, which will include a full new forecast. The Bank has held at 2.25% for seven straight meetings. Markets currently put the odds of a quarter-point hike at roughly 54%, down slightly from about 59% a week ago but still a coin flip. Before the Bank's September 2 hold, markets saw a hold as about 94% likely. The reason for the shift is oil: Brent crude was near US$102 on Friday, down from about US$107 on Monday, but still more than US$25 above the US$70-75 the Bank assumed in its July outlook.

Economists are less convinced than traders. RBC, Desjardins and Capital Economics have all said they expect the Bank to hold in October, with Desjardins and RBC looking to early 2027 for the first move. Desjardins notes that if tariffs push unemployment up, they'd also dampen inflation modestly - but retaliatory tariffs and high oil could push the other way and bring a hike forward. The September jobs report (Friday, October 9) and September CPI (mid-October) are the two data points that will likely tip it. Governor Macklem's September 21 message was that the Bank doesn't want to hike into a slowdown but also doesn't want to be too slow if inflation sticks.

For borrowers, the practical numbers: the best five-year fixed rates are around 4.24% to 4.34% depending on lender and down payment (up from 4.09% at the end of August), the best five-year variable is about 3.40%, and prime remains 4.45%. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which drives fixed pricing, was around 3.6%. With roughly 1.15 million mortgages renewing this year, get a written rate hold now - it's free, usually lasts 90 to 120 days, and protects you from a move higher before you close or renew.

4. The Property Tax Question Ontario Homeowners Should Be Watching

One item that didn't get much attention this week but could matter for every homeowner in York Region: the Globe and Mail reported that Ontario's property assessments have been frozen at 2016 values for six years, and the province is consulting on what to do about it. If Premier Doug Ford lifts the freeze, homeowners whose properties have appreciated faster than average would see larger tax increases, while those whose values have fallen may have been overpaying for years.

Why it matters locally: values in Stouffville, Markham and Richmond Hill have moved very differently since 2016 than values in a downtown condo or an older Scarborough bungalow. A reassessment would redistribute the tax burden, and it would show up in carrying costs - which buyers already stretching to afford a 4%-plus mortgage will care about. No decision has been announced, so this is something to watch, not something to price in. But it's a good reason to ask your agent about the current assessment and annual tax on any property you're considering, and to factor in a margin.

Peter's Take

Here's how I'm reading it. September gave us the first real look at what happens when rates drift up, confidence drops and prices are still falling. Buyers slowed down. Sellers who didn't have to sell started waiting. Fewer listings and fewer buyers is a stalemate more than a squeeze. That's a market that rewards people who are prepared and punishes people who are guessing.

If you're buying: get a written rate hold and take the longest one offered. On resale, use the time you have: inspections, financing conditions, and room to negotiate on price, especially in condos, where inventory is highest. Look closely at carrying costs, including property tax.

If you're selling: price to what actually sold nearby in the last 60 days, not what sold in spring. Fewer competing listings is real, but it isn't a guarantee of a premium. Presentation and pricing do the heavy lifting. If you own a resale condo, know that you're competing with builders and with record-low sales.

If you're investing: underwrite at today's rates plus a hike. A condo that only works at a 4.24% mortgage is thinner than it looks, and a median price at a multi-year low isn't automatically a bargain - it's a price discovery process.

What to watch next: TRREB's September Market Watch in the next few days; the September jobs report on Friday, October 9; September CPI in mid-October; whether Brent stays above US$100; and the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision. If you'd like to talk through what this means for your street, price range or renewal date, reach out. That conversation is always more useful than the general one.

_Sources

_{•  Move Smartly (John Pasalis) - "GTA Home Sales Slow Again in September," October 2, 2026: insights.movesmartly.com/articles/gta-home-sales-slow-again-in-september}

_{•  Statistics Canada - "Gross domestic product by industry, July 2026," The Daily, September 29, 2026: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260929/dq260929a-eng.htm}

_{•  BNN Bloomberg - "July GDP was flat despite construction, utilities gains: StatCan," September 29, 2026 (TD's Marc Ercolao, KPMG's Peter Shannon, BMO's Benjamin Reitzes): bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/09/29/july-gdp-was-flat-despite-construction-utilities-gains-statcan/}

_{•  Desjardins Economic Studies - "Canada: Real GDP Took a Summer Break in July," September 29, 2026: desjardins.com/en/savings-investment/economic-studies/canada-real-gdp-29-september-2026.html}

_{•  The Globe and Mail - "After a year of rate holds, markets see BoC's next meeting as a coin flip," September 18, 2026 (RBC's Claire Fan, Desjardins' Randall Bartlett, Capital Economics' Stephen Brown)}

_{•  BNN Bloomberg / The Canadian Press - "Odds of an interest rate hike from Bank of Canada this year have jumped," September 18, 2026}

_{•  money.ca - "Traders now see a Bank of Canada rate hike as a coin flip for Oct. 28," September 25, 2026; Bank of Canada Odds (bankofcanadaodds.com), accessed October 4, 2026 (~54% hike; approximate)}

_{•  Trading Economics - Brent crude, October 2, 2026 close (US$102.25): tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil}

_{•  Ratehub.ca / WOWA / nesto.ca - best 5-year fixed and variable mortgage rates, as of October 2, 2026}

_{•  The Globe and Mail - "The property tax time-bomb, house-sitters save big and the Home of the Week: Canadian real estate news for the week of Oct. 2," October 2, 2026}

_{•  TRREB - Market Watch, August 2026 (released September 3, 2026) - for comparison; September release pending at time of writing}

_{•  Bank of Canada - policy rate announcement, September 2, 2026; Governor Macklem speech, September 21, 2026}

Peter Kiriazopoulos, Sales Representative  ·  Kompass Realty Group  ·  RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., Brokerage  ·  1739 Bayview Avenue, Toronto

This brief is provided for general information only and is not intended as financial, mortgage, legal or tax advice. Market data is sourced as cited above and is subject to revision. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.